Assuming Bernanke leaves in 2014, Janet Yellen more likely to be Fed Chairman than Tim Geithner

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-18; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-04.

• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-12-18
• RandomThinker said “Bloomberg says Smart Money on Geithner. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-16/smart-money-is-on-geithner-to-replace-bernanke.html” on 2012-12-18
• RandomThinker changed the deadline from “on 2015-02-01” on 2012-12-18
• RandomThinker said “Of course, I think Bernanke is staying. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8916” on 2012-12-18
• lavalamp said “This prediction should be rephrased, it will be unjudgeable if neither of them become Fed Chairman…” on 2012-12-21
• RandomThinker said “@lavalamp that’s the point. I wanted something with a normalized value of 50%. The reason is that it’s easier to see my calibration this way. It’ll be withdrawn if neither makes it. ” on 2012-12-22
• ygert   judged this prediction right on 2014-02-04.