Clinton to be Democratic nominee
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
- JoshuaZ estimated 81% on 2015-08-10
- JoshuaZ said “https://voat.co/v/politics/comments/392769/1683872#1683872 $20 bet with secretsquirrel2” on 2015-08-10
- HonoreDB estimated 88% on 2015-08-13
- Dapple estimated 82% and said “Now, what’s your probability estimate that secretsquirrel2 holds up his end of the bargain?” on 2015-08-14
- JoshuaZ said “Conditional on Clinton being the nominee? 55% or so. I generally don’t make bets unless I have an expected payoff that is positive even if I presume a 50% chance of non-payment. ” on 2015-08-14
- supinf estimated 91% on 2015-08-15
- gorass estimated 50% on 2015-08-15
- NathanMcKnight estimated 70% on 2015-08-23
- sflicht estimated 73% on 2015-08-25
- NathanMcKnight estimated 90% and said “Updating based on performance in debate and Benghazi hearing. ” on 2015-11-03
- sflicht estimated 86% on 2015-11-03
- elephantower judged this prediction right on 2016-07-13.
- Dapple judged this prediction unknown on 2016-07-16.
- Dapple said “Until the convention happens, anything could happen. Hillary Clinton could be assassinated or something similar.” on 2016-07-16
- elephantower said “Well, judge it wrong then — when the outcome is virtually certain it’s best to just wrap it up ” on 2016-07-16
- elephantower estimated 99% and said “might as well if this isn’t resolved yet” on 2016-07-16
- two2thehead estimated 99% and said “All in!” on 2016-07-16
- sflicht estimated 99% on 2016-07-16
- themusicgod1 estimated 94% on 2016-07-16
- elephantower judged this prediction right on 2016-07-17.
- elephantower judged this prediction unknown on 2016-07-17.
- elephantower said “Just testing — my prediction on this question appears to have been automatically marked wrong. I believe this is because it was already judged, then reverted to unknown (ie not right), making predictions on it show up as wrong on user pages” on 2016-07-17
- elephantower said “This is a consequence of https://github.com/tricycle/predictionbook/issues/100” on 2016-07-17
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction right on 2016-07-27.