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I successfully arbitrage PredictIt with >10% pre-tax ROI at the end of the Republican National Convention

Created by Dapple on 2015-08-12; known on 2016-07-21; judged right by Dapple on 2016-07-13.

  • Dapple estimated 90% on 2015-08-12
  • JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2015-08-13
  • JoshuaZ said “Are you taking into account the withdrawal fee and the percentage fee on profit? ” on 2015-08-13
  • Dapple said “Yes. 95% of 90% is still a pretty sizeable chunk remaining.” on 2015-08-13
  • Dapple   judged this prediction right on 2016-07-13.
  • Dapple said “I locked in my profits earlier so I could move money around elsewhere. My greatest pessimism was directed at any given failure of the PredictIt platform.” on 2016-07-13