Armed conflict in space before 2050
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01
- btrettel estimated 5% on 2015-08-16
- btrettel said “Related: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/war-in-space-may-be-closer-than-ever/” on 2015-08-16
- JoshuaZ said “What counts as armed conflict? Is one nation shooting down a single other nation’s satellite sufficient? ” on 2015-08-16
- btrettel said “I’d count that. I’d also count something which disables a satellite but did not destroy it (say, spraying something on it), as long as the actual damage occurred in space.” on 2015-08-16
- JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-08-16
- Afforess estimated 2% and said “Highly unlikely. Major powers are not actively seeking new wars, Minor powers lack the ability to influence or affect space-based resources.” on 2015-08-17
- PseudonymousUser said “Are you including things like temporarily disrupting the functions of satellites?” on 2015-08-20
- PseudonymousUser said “E.g., are you including nonpermanent damage, cyberattacks, etc.” on 2015-08-20
- btrettel said “Temporary disruption and nonpermanent damage count. I don’t think cyberattacks count because from we already have that capability.” on 2015-08-20
- PseudonymousUser estimated 3% and said “I see. Thanks.” on 2015-08-23
- PseudonymousUser estimated 8% and said “Well, 2050 is a long way off…” on 2015-08-23
- sflicht estimated 25% and said “Equal to my probability of a significant armed conflict involving two or more of {US, Russia, China, Japan, India, Pakistan}. Of that set, I have ~80% confidence that US, Russia and China all already have anti-sat weapons in orbit.” on 2015-08-25
- sflicht said “Actually I doubt we would, at this point, reveal our anti-sat tech in a confrontation with Pakistan, because their military satellite tech seems quite primitive so far. But this could change in the future.” on 2015-08-25
- sflicht said “I also worry that even if a military satellite deorbits unexpectedly during a period of tension or war, neither the attacker nor the defender will be likely to confirm that this was the result of anything but a malfunction.” on 2015-08-25
- PseudonymousUser estimated 16% on 2015-09-13
- PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2015-09-29