By January 31, 2013, the confidence on this prediction will be between 40 – 60%.

Created by edwga on 2012-12-20; known on 2013-01-31; judged right by edwga on 2013-01-31.

• edwga estimated 75% on 2012-12-20
• edwga estimated 35% on 2012-12-20
• edwga changed their prediction from “By January 31, 2013, 40 – 60% of the predictions on this prediction will be at most 50% confident.” on 2012-12-20
• Qiaochu estimated 0% and said “No paradox. 0% is a Nash equilibrium. ” on 2012-12-21
• Jayson Virissimo said “I don’t think we should have these kinds of predictions until we have a good tagging system, since it encourages “gaming” which will flood the happenstance page.” on 2012-12-21
• Tuxedage estimated 50% on 2012-12-27
• Tuxedage estimated 10% on 2012-12-27
• darkdaemon estimated 60% on 2012-12-31
• ewang estimated 70% on 2013-01-05
• Slahzer estimated 50% on 2013-01-26
• edwga   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-31.