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Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01

  • btrettel estimated 50% on 2015-08-19
  • btrettel said “Motivation: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289607000463” on 2015-08-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2015-08-19
  • EloiseRosen estimated 15% on 2015-08-19
  • JoshuaZ said “Also I presume this means un-normalized IQ. ” on 2015-08-19
  • Michael Dickens estimated 20% and said “Flynn effect will likely continue.” on 2015-08-20
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 30% on 2015-08-20
  • kuudes said “What is the current IQ of the world and how we should measure it? As far as I understand the question is still rather open in science.” on 2015-08-20
  • Afforess estimated 10% and said “Flynn Effect.” on 2015-08-20
  • RoryS estimated 30% on 2015-08-22
  • btrettel estimated 30% on 2015-08-22
  • timujin said “The average world IQ is always 100 by definition.” on 2015-08-23
  • JoshuaZ said “Hence my comment about unnormalized IQ. Note that using the non-normalized from old tests is a standard psychometric thing. ” on 2015-08-23
  • btrettel said “Oh, missed your first comment, JoshuaZ. Yes, this is not normalized IQ, or else the prediction would not make sense.” on 2015-08-23
  • kuudes said “Could someone fix some accepted measure of the world current IQ and link that? There is scientific debate on what is the current IQ level of different locations. PIAAC may be the widest measure, but is metered only in OECD+partners.” on 2015-08-23
  • kuudes said “Ie there have been propositions that difference in mean IQ between countries may be much larger than 1 sd of within-country populations. That way the globe’s mean IQ could behave rather independently of OECD mean IQ in future etc.” on 2015-08-23
  • btrettel said “I’ll look into it.” on 2015-08-25
  • InquilineKea estimated 40% on 2015-08-25
  • booradleytron estimated 30% and said “I haven’t read these articles, but I guess I feel like at the rate the world is developing, it’s unlikely that the average will DEcrease. This is a great idea for a prediction @btrettel. I’m very curious. ” on 2015-08-25
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% and said “Am expecting dysgenic fertility to lower IQ in the next 2 decades, but for cognitive enhancers to overcome those effects in the decades after that.” on 2015-08-25
  • danielfilan estimated 20% on 2015-10-14
  • themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-14
  • ejlflop estimated 55% on 2016-06-16
  • two2thehead said “Almost certainly. The decrease in white and east asian population combined with the sheer population growth in africa will lead to a lower median IQ. Even with the flynn effect. Crispr may help but that’s an unknown atm.” on 2016-06-16