PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.06 in 2050

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2051-01-01

  • btrettel estimated 60% on 2015-08-24
  • btrettel said “According to linear extrapolation, the mortality rate should be about zero then. I anticipate it’ll be near a long term asymptote. It’s hard to predict what that’ll be.” on 2015-08-24
  • btrettel said “Assuming that the minimum risk is similar to that of sports with standard safety procedures, I can use that data to make a prediction. Skiiing is about 0.06: http://www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/bandolier/booth/risk/sports.html” on 2015-08-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-08-24