Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2015-08-25
- PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2015-08-26
- HonoreDB estimated 10% on 2015-08-26
- aarongertler estimated 7% on 2015-08-26
- JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2015-08-26
- btrettel estimated 29% on 2015-08-26
- sflicht estimated 12% on 2015-08-27
- btrettel estimated 10% on 2015-08-31
- PseudonymousUser said “https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleMarket?marketId=1232” on 2015-09-02
- PseudonymousUser estimated 30% on 2015-09-02
- Andrew MacFie estimated 20% on 2015-09-02
- danielfilan estimated 5% on 2015-09-05
- PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2015-09-10
- PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2015-09-11
- PseudonymousUser said “Not sure what’s going on with him: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/biden-mum-on-white-house-plans-during-emotional-appearance-on-colbert-show-2015-09-10” on 2015-09-11
- JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “Seems more unlikely to run at this point. ” on 2015-09-12
- PseudonymousUser estimated 25% on 2015-10-09
- PseudonymousUser estimated 35% on 2015-10-09
- JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Updating on Biden saying he is not going to run. It is still remotely possible he’ll run and win, but the scenario essentially needs to involve catastrophic health problems for Sanders and Clinton, or something similar. ” on 2015-11-01
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-17
- sflicht estimated 1% on 2016-02-04
- themusicgod1 estimated 7% on 2016-04-14
- Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-04-18
- btrettel judged this prediction wrong on 2016-09-02.