By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2035-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2015-08-27
• JoshuaZ said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/70208 determined to be right although with very high pressure conditions. ” on 2015-08-27
• olivia estimated 45% on 2015-09-09
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 50% and said “Superconductivity is poorly understood, so this is a pure guess.” on 2015-09-15
• JoshuaZ said “Conventional superconductors are well-understood, and we’ve made a lot of progress on understanding high-temp superconductors. More to the point, one can tentatively extrapolate at least in part by the rate of discovery. ” on 2015-09-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2020-10-15
• Deepak estimated 60% on 2020-10-17