Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President.
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
- JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2015-08-27
- JoshuaZ said “Note https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/3i7ywl/im_warning_everyone_i_know_that_trump_now_has_a/cuemo9o?context=3 bet with ErikTheRedditor for $20.” on 2015-08-27
- average_joe estimated 12% on 2015-08-28
- sflicht estimated 9% on 2015-08-28
- sflicht said “I think it is very difficult to both control for overconfidence about a given candidate’s (lack of) chance to be nominated, and to respect that probabilities sum to 1.” on 2015-08-28
- sflicht said “For instance, you can’t believe all of the following: Walker + Rubio + Bush > .7, Cruz > .1, Carson + Fiorina + Trump + Kasich > .2, Christie + Huckabee + Paul + Santorum + Jindal > .03” on 2015-08-28
- JoshuaZ said “Yeah, I know, it is a really hard thing to handle. I’ve avoided making any bets that rely closely on my probabilities for that reason. ” on 2015-08-28
- JoshuaZ said “Note also that even markets are having trouble to get them to match up. There’s still money to be made in PredictIt in the Republican primary election for this reason because overall yes shares are still overvalued most days. ” on 2015-08-28
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2015-09-03
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% on 2015-09-14
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 20% and said “He seems to be the leading non-Trump at this point.” on 2016-01-25
- JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2016-01-26
- sflicht estimated 15% on 2016-02-04
- PseudonymousUser estimated 15% on 2016-02-04
- danielfilan estimated 15% on 2016-02-08
- Andrew MacFie estimated 10% on 2016-02-12
- JoshuaZ estimated 28% on 2016-02-12
- PseudonymousUser estimated 18% on 2016-02-22
- sflicht estimated 5% on 2016-03-01
- CarlShulman estimated 15% on 2016-03-17
- ioannes estimated 15% on 2016-03-22
- themusicgod1 estimated 34% on 2016-04-14
- Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-05-04
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “Ted Cruz nad Kasich has dropped out. Trump is certain to win nomination because there is no competition.” on 2016-05-06
- Raahul_Kumar judged this prediction wrong on 2016-05-06.
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction unknown on 2016-05-11.
- JoshuaZ said “Do not judge the prediction before it resolves. If you want to give it a 0% that’s fine. ” on 2016-05-11
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-20.
- Bruno Parga said “Trump has been formally nominated at the Convention, so I judged this prediction wrong.” on 2016-07-20