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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years.

Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.

  • danpop estimated 75% on 2015-08-29
  • JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-08-29
  • sflicht estimated 35% on 2015-08-29
  • Afforess estimated 20% on 2015-09-01
  • PseudonymousUser said “Danpop, you set the deadline for 3 years. Which date should we use?” on 2015-09-02
  • danpop estimated 75% and said “I’m thinking that in 3 years time we will be sure that the agreement will end eventually. Within 5 years for sure.” on 2015-09-03
  • JoshuaZ said “Danpop in that case you should maybe have two separate predictions, have this one set for 5 years (since that what it is about) and have an estimate for 3 years in a separate prediction. ” on 2015-09-03
  • kuudes said “Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Agreement says there is no more such a thing already but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquis_communautaire so I wonder how this will be judged? Should specific act happen?” on 2015-09-05
  • kuudes estimated 17% on 2015-09-05
  • sdr estimated 1% and said “Given the political climate, the integration of trade, intra-EU migration, and business interests, the interpretation of “all currently-member countries to re-introduce borders for trade, or migration” is very unlikely. ” on 2015-09-07
  • sdr said “what prompted non-zero estimates of this, btw?” on 2015-09-07
  • JoshuaZ said “Ongoing refugee crisis. ” on 2015-09-07
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2015-09-07
  • Serge estimated 13% on 2015-09-08
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “There is an EU migration crisis right now, but it is unlikely to lead to termination of the Schengen agreement. The costs are too huge.” on 2015-09-08
  • olivia estimated 3% on 2015-09-09
  • danielfilan estimated 15% on 2015-09-11
  • Medea estimated 15% on 2015-10-09
  • Afforess estimated 25% and said “Vague rumblings of issues with the Schengen Zone now. http://www.seattletimes.com/life/travel/eu-free-travel-zone-in-danger-as-nations-fence-out-migrants/” on 2015-11-12
  • kuudes said “My estimate includes a large uncertainty in judgement given that currently the free movement legislation is part of treaties on European Union. It seems possible to me that there will be disagreement on what is the state of prediction.” on 2015-11-16
  • themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-11
  • sdr   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-08-29.