By 2019, for the first time in history, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) will not account for a majority of worldwide defence expenditure. It accounted for almost two-thirds of global spending as recently as 2010,” said IHS.

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2019-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% on 2015-09-10
• Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2019-12-25” and changed their prediction from “By 2019, for the first time in history, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) will not account for a majority of worldwide defence expenditure. It accounted for almost two-thirds of global spending as recently as 2010,” said IHS. Nato expenditure” on 2015-09-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-09-10
• Raahul_Kumar said “ NATO spent total $892 billion on defense in 2015, down from $942 billion in 2014 and $968 billion in 2013.http://www.defenseone.com/politics/2015/06/nato-members-defense-spending-two-charts/116008/” on 2015-09-15
• Raahul_Kumar said “Josh, I don’t get you, NATO spending is decreasing, Asian spending is increasing. Can you explain how NATO will reverse that trend in 4 years?” on 2015-09-15
• JoshuaZ said “I don’t assign a high probability to that trend continuing, especially given what has been happening with Russia. Moreover, even if that trend does continue, it needs to continue at a rapid rate. ” on 2015-09-15
• Raahul_Kumar said “At present trends, NATO will be at 816 billion by 2018. Asia-Pacific, meanwhile, is expected to grow to $547.1 billion by 2020.http://defencenews.in/defence-news-internal.aspx?id=nvwVP5NYvdk==” on 2015-09-19
• Raahul_Kumar said “NATO defence cuts set to end as security worries boost spendinghttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/defence/12055228/NATO-defence-cuts-set-to-end-as-security-worries-boost-spending.html” on 2016-01-05
• Raahul_Kumar said “Defense spending by NATO countries shrank in 2015 by 1.5% to $871 billionhttp://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2016-01-28/nato-chief-allied-defense-spending-going-in-right-direction” on 2016-02-25
• Raahul_Kumar said “Other top 15 spenders exceed US spending for first time.” on 2016-02-25
• Bruno Parga said “World 1.8tn, of which NATO 1.0tn https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures” on 2019-12-28
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-12-28.