Donald Trump will lose the New Hampshire primary.

Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-09; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-02-10.

• KBVMD estimated 85% on 2015-09-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2015-09-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2015-09-14
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 65% and said ““Lose” is a little ambiguous in the context of a primary; I’ll assume we mean “not come in first”.” on 2015-09-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 65% on 2015-09-23
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2015-10-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2015-10-20
• Andrew MacFie estimated 60% on 2015-11-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 59% on 2015-11-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2015-12-17
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 50% and said “In recent primary campaigns, going back to the 2004 Democratic primary, candidates who have led in Iowa or New Hampshire with just one month to go have lost as often as they have won. ” on 2016-01-05
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 40% on 2016-01-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 42% on 2016-01-26
• ioannes estimated 40% on 2016-02-05
• ioannes estimated 15% on 2016-02-07
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-10.