Non-Liberal Prime Minister after the next Australian Federal Election

Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-07-16.

• Caleb Withers estimated 40% on 2015-09-14
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 60% and said “If Albanese is the Labour candidate NOT Bill Shorten. If Bill Shorten then 10%.” on 2015-09-15
• Raahul_Kumar said “Turnbull, as of right now has the election in the bag. I am assuming the Labour party will read the polls and change leaders.” on 2015-09-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-09-15
• Caleb Withers said “Hypothesis: based on https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=PM.2016.LIBERAL and belief that market responded over-exuberantly to Turnbull” on 2015-09-15
• PipFoweraker estimated 65% and said “The likelihood of a double-dissolution election weighs in my mind. Possible increased minority party representation, more likely to coordinate government with Labor than Liberals.” on 2016-01-06
• waveman estimated 65% and said “The reaction to the budget is unmitigated anger” on 2016-05-04
• waveman   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-16.