Bharat will pass the USA in steel production in 2015(full calendar year). In 2014 USA was ahead. Steel is an excellent proxy for GDP growth, along with cement and electricity. Data Source: World Steel Association.
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-03-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-25.
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% on 2015-09-15
- Raahul_Kumar said “World Steel Association shows Bharat ahead in steel production every month for the first 6 months of this year.http://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production.html” on 2015-09-15
- JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-09-15
- Raahul_Kumar said “USA:46968 Bharat:52889 Bharat has exceeded the US steel every month for the last 7 months in a row. Can you explain those low odds please with a rationale? There are only 5 months left in the year. ” on 2015-09-15
- Raahul_Kumar said “Bharat 67575 USA 60611Deficit is huge.https://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production.html” on 2015-11-04
- Raahul_Kumar said “Oct stats are in, the gap has grown even wider. I will call this prediction with November stats, 1 more month won’t make any difference to the results.” on 2015-11-27
- Raahul_Kumar said “Ok Nov stats are not on WSA’s website. I am going to extend the deadline to next year, because it seems the WSA won’t update anytime soon, and I don’t know when they will get around to doing so.” on 2015-12-19
- Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2015-12-25” on 2015-12-19
- Raahul_Kumar said “November stats are out. I am calling based on 11 months worth of stats, December stats won’t change the picture.https://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production.html” on 2015-12-23
- Raahul_Kumar said “Does anyone else want me to wait until the Dec stats are out though?” on 2015-12-23
- JoshuaZ estimated 95% and said “I would prefer waiting, although I agree that one month is highly unlikely to change things. ” on 2015-12-23
- Raahul_Kumar said “Waiting for Dec stats now, hopefully can close this prediction in the next month or two.” on 2016-01-02
- PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2016-01-02
- Raahul_Kumar said “December stats are out. https://www.worldsteel.org/statistics/crude-steel-production.html” on 2016-01-25
- Raahul_Kumar judged this prediction right on 2016-01-25.