On December 1st, 2016 I will have made more money on PredictIt than I spent.
- EloiseRosen estimated 85% on 2015-09-16
- JoshuaZ estimated 95% and said “More money on PredictIt is pretty easy right now given how bad the inefficiencies are and how much arbitrage there is on the Republican candidates alone. ” on 2015-09-16
- JoshuaZ said “Pretty much the only way I see this as not happening, is if you and Sam start having a competition to see who can end up with more and that somehow makes you engage in riskier moves. ” on 2015-09-16
- EloiseRosen estimated 90% and said “Sam doesn’t share my interest in predictions, but I still have more than a year to mess it up some other way. But yes, you’re probably right that my original estimate was a little under-confident.” on 2015-09-16
- themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-12-04
- EloiseRosen judged this prediction right on 2017-10-25.
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