Fight over debt ceiling in Spring of 2013 will cause 1 or more of the 3 major ratings agencies (S&P, Moody, Fitch) to downgrade US govt debt

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.

• RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2013-01-03
• RandomThinker changed their prediction from “Fight over debt ceiling in Spring of 2013 will cause 1 of the 3 major ratings agencies (S&P, Moody, Fitch) to downgrade US govt debt” on 2013-01-03
• simplicio estimated 35% on 2013-01-03
• simplicio said “Do the ratings agencies explicitly state what caused them to downgrade?” on 2013-01-03
• Tuxedage estimated 10% on 2013-01-03
• RandomThinker said “@simplicio not always. they did last time though. ” on 2013-01-06
• Jayson Virissimo said “How will this be judged if the downgrade happens, but the “fight over debt ceiling” isn’t mentioned?” on 2013-01-07
• RandomThinker said “@jayson i’ll count any downgrade before June as relating to the debt ceiling fight, unless there’s no fight at all.” on 2013-01-15
• RandomThinker said “Nope, but they’re still bluffing. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-could-downgrade-us-debt-in-2013-report-2013-05-20” on 2013-06-15
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-06-15.