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Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2051-01-01

  • btrettel estimated 25% on 2015-09-21
  • btrettel said “Due to antibiotic resistance, or possibly something else (apocalypse?). Will think of a more precise definition of “rare” in this case if requested.” on 2015-09-21
  • JoshuaZ said “Also, other treatments, e.g. bacteriophages, systematic wiping out of many bacteria, customized viruses to modify your immune system. Seem other options. ” on 2015-09-22
  • JoshuaZ said “Need clarification before estimating, if we use viruses or other systems to make your body temporarily produce its own antibiotic, would this count as an antibiotic prescription? ” on 2015-09-22
  • btrettel said “Good points. I’ll think more about this. I’m open to suggestions.” on 2015-09-22
  • Raahul_Kumar said “You need to provide a % for how often antibiotics are prescribed today, and what % you expect in 2050. Vague!! ” on 2015-09-24
  • btrettel changed the deadline from “on 2051-01-01” and changed their prediction from “Antibiotics rarely prescribed in 2050” on 2015-09-24
  • btrettel said “Excellent point Raahul_Kumar. Data from CDC: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc1212055” on 2015-09-24
  • btrettel said “For the sake of this prediction, making your body produce an antibiotic counts.” on 2015-09-24
  • btrettel said “Antibiotics could become rare for multiple reasons in this, whether through antibiotic resistance making them worthless, through something better than antibiotics coming along, through dangerous bacteria being wiped out, etc.” on 2015-09-24
  • btrettel said “The CDC says in 2010 there were 833 prescriptions per 1000 Americans.” on 2015-09-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2015-09-24
  • Raahul_Kumar said “I signed a petition to reduce antibiotic usage in farm animals, so down is the direction I expect for future antibiotic usage worldwide, not just the USA.” on 2015-09-25
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 5% and said “However, 50 times per 1000 is too low. A figure of 415 is more likely aka 50% reduction. I am not counting phages or any other radical breakthrough.” on 2015-09-25
  • Josh Holland estimated 5% on 2015-09-28
  • aarongertler estimated 15% on 2015-10-04