Steven Spielberg will win the Oscar for Best Director.

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.

• Peter Hurford estimated 45% on 2013-01-10
• Qiaochu estimated 50% on 2013-01-11
• RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2013-01-13
• RandomThinker said “He’s the fave, but he’s going against the field. ” on 2013-01-13
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 45% on 2013-01-17
• Michael Dickens estimated 30% on 2013-01-21
• simplicio estimated 65% and said “Thanks for the advice; just shorted 4 shares on Intrade at 13:1.” on 2013-01-21
• simplicio said “Oops, meant to say that in the Anne Hathaway prediction thread.” on 2013-01-21
• Peter Hurford   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-02-25.