Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016

Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.

• DrDiaphanous estimated 20% on 2013-01-10
• Peter Hurford estimated 1% on 2013-01-10
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2013-01-11
• Qiaochu said “Prediction is too specific. I would have assigned a somewhat higher probability that some company will be doing this by 2016, but Google in particular seems more likely to focus on self-driving cars for awhile. ” on 2013-01-11
• RandomThinker estimated 5% on 2013-01-11
• roxton estimated 0% on 2013-01-11
• kiba estimated 0% on 2013-01-11
• Cy Fleming estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
• Tuxedage estimated 0% on 2013-01-15
• ChristianKl estimated 0% on 2013-01-15
• jasticE estimated 1% on 2013-01-17
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2013-01-21
• Nic_Smith said “How do we deal with flying cars with a Google OS, but different manufacturer, much like Android phones now?” on 2013-01-21
• ewang estimated 0% on 2013-01-21
• simplicio estimated 0% and said “Flying cars are basically a bad idea IMHO. That combined with the additional detail that this is google specifically makes this seem pretty unlikely.” on 2013-01-21
• Michael Dickens estimated 5% on 2013-01-21
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2013-01-22
• DrDiaphanous estimated 3% and said “I guess that was massively overconfident. The 20% is ignoring either the “Google” or the “selling”.” on 2013-01-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2013-01-23
• alanog estimated 0% on 2013-01-23
• Slahzer estimated 1% on 2013-01-30
• Benja estimated 1% on 2013-01-30
• Elithrion estimated 0% on 2013-02-01
• kiba estimated 0% on 2013-04-01
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2014-06-29
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-14
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-07-09
• neilscott   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-26.