Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire

Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.

• thephilosiraptor estimated 65% on 2013-01-13
• thephilosiraptor changed their prediction from “Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire wi” on 2013-01-13
• Tuxedage estimated 5% on 2013-01-13
• HonoreDB estimated 0% on 2013-01-13
• Leo estimated 5% on 2013-01-14
• RandomThinker estimated 1% on 2013-01-14
• dhoe estimated 1% on 2013-01-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2013-01-14
• JoshuaZ said “Conjunction fallacy. ” on 2013-01-14
• ygert estimated 0% on 2013-01-14
• Peter Hurford estimated 0% on 2013-01-14
• Leo said “JoshuaZ: “Obama makes it to end of term AND does not cede office” is a fair rephrasing. Only one conjunction. Are we insisting on “cites collapse as a reason”?” on 2013-01-14
• JoshuaZ said “Well, I’d expect some sort of collapse as relevant. For example if in four years the economy is extremely strong, but the rest of this happens that would still seem to be false. ” on 2013-01-14
• Qiaochu estimated 0% and said “My prior for this happening is extremely low. What’s your evidence? ” on 2013-01-14
• Cy Fleming estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
• simplicio estimated 0% and said “Very low prior, lots of conjunctions as well (economic & social collapse AND use of emergency powers AND cancels 2016 elections).65%? Do you know something I don’t?” on 2013-01-15
• ChristianKl estimated 1% on 2013-01-15
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% and said “BTW, the word “perhaps” has no business being in a prediction statement.” on 2013-01-16
• saturn estimated 1% on 2013-01-16
• Nic_Smith estimated 2% on 2013-01-21
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2013-01-21
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2013-01-22
• NathanMcKnight estimated 0% on 2013-01-23
• ashrewdmint estimated 5% and said “I think you mean “dictatorship”.” on 2013-01-23
• Benja estimated 0% on 2013-01-30
• najdorf estimated 1% on 2013-02-06
• John Maxwell IV estimated 0% and said “Was this close to happening during the great depression or the vietnam war?” on 2013-02-14
• andrevan estimated 0% on 2013-02-15
• btrettel estimated 0% on 2015-07-26
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2015-09-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2015-09-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “Snowball, meet hell.” on 2015-09-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-11-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 6% on 2016-04-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2016-04-15
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-07-09
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-20.