The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013.

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

• Peter Hurford estimated 99% on 2013-01-15
• RandomThinker estimated 80% on 2013-01-15
• Tuxedage estimated 99% on 2013-01-15
• Cy Fleming estimated 100% on 2013-01-15
• Cy Fleming estimated 99% on 2013-01-15
• alecbrooks estimated 98% and said “Given the AAA and AA+ ratings and how cheap debt is…” on 2013-01-16
• dhoe estimated 95% on 2013-01-16
• Michael Dickens estimated 98% on 2013-01-21
• simplicio estimated 99% on 2013-01-21
• Osuniev estimated 85% and said “Alas…” on 2013-01-24
• ChristianKl said “How do we define “default” here? Does defaulting on a few obligations because congress doesn’t raise the debt limit count?” on 2013-01-24
• procran estimated 99% on 2013-01-28
• najdorf estimated 99% on 2013-02-06
• dimitry12 estimated 100% and said “Will never happen.” on 2013-10-07
• adbge estimated 100% on 2013-10-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 100% on 2013-11-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2013-11-17
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction right on 2014-01-01.