The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.

Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16

• Cy Fleming estimated 50% on 2013-01-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2013-01-16
• Tuxedage estimated 5% and said “This is incredibly unlikely, where are you getting your priors from?” on 2013-01-17
• Tuxedage said “Okay, it seems like I might have underestimated this probability. I just checked, and the US has been under 3% unemployment rate once in its history, when I somehow wrongly remembered it never happening. ” on 2013-01-17
• Tuxedage estimated 12% and said “So my probability given this information has risen to about 12%” on 2013-01-17
• Tuxedage said “Still, 50% is ridiculously high.” on 2013-01-17
• Tuxedage said “(It happened in 1952)” on 2013-01-17
• dhoe estimated 5% on 2013-01-17
• Michael Dickens estimated 10% on 2013-01-21
• ChristianKl estimated 8% on 2013-01-24
• lavalamp estimated 15% on 2013-01-25
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% and said “It is almost as if the USG is actively trying to increase the cost of hiring people. Not going to happen.” on 2013-01-25
• Nic_Smith estimated 3% on 2013-01-27
• najdorf estimated 0% and said “That’d be awesome but no chance.” on 2013-02-06
• simplicio estimated 10% on 2013-02-20
• Malgidus estimated 2% on 2013-03-27
• RandomThinker estimated 25% on 2013-03-28
• themusicgod1 estimated 4% on 2016-10-10