Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/)

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-26; known on 2113-01-01

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2013-01-26
  • RandomThinker said “What’s 2 std deviations of a ordinal list?on 2013-01-26
  • NathanMcKnight said “Ah…hah. Lol. on 2013-01-26
  • NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “Obama will come to be ranked by top historians within two standard deviations as 17th best president (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/)” on 2013-01-26
  • NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by top historians as approximately the 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/)” on 2013-01-26
  • NathanMcKnight said “I’m trying to reword this to capture the essence of the prediction with some quantifiable wiggle room. Any suggestions?on 2013-01-26
  • NathanMcKnight said “I’m not a statistician; maybe I’m thinking about the problem wrong…but if we’re looking at a statistical distribution of various historians’s rankings, then wouldn’t all the usual measurements still apply? on 2013-01-26
  • NathanMcKnight said “So, it’s not an ordinal list per se, so much as a scatter plot of varying ordinal lists. on 2013-01-26
  • lavalamp said “You need to define “approximately”; e.g., 17th place, +/- 2 places or something of that nature.on 2013-01-31
  • NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians as approximately the 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/)” on 2013-02-04
  • moridinamael estimated 10% on 2013-02-06
  • RandomThinker estimated 35% and said “In one hundred years? We’ll never see this. How about in 2026, 10 years after end of his term?on 2013-02-13
  • lavalamp estimated 45% on 2013-02-19
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Assume around 70 presidents and not at the very bottom or very top, and that historians are bothering to do this. So really about 60 positions and this takes up 5 of them. 5/60 =8 , and bump slightly for being probably not too far on the low end. on 2013-02-19
  • JoshuaZ said “Er, that should be 5/60 is about 8%on 2013-02-19
  • themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction