It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement.

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-25

• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2015-10-06
• Raahul_Kumar said “To be clear, this is because 001-A(山东/Shandong) will be complete in 4.5 years, not 9 as predicted by National Interest.” on 2015-10-06
• JoshuaZ said “I’m sorry, what is the predicted claim to this statement? ” on 2015-10-06
• Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2020-12-25” and changed their prediction from “It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single Nimitz or Ford-class supercarrier and that yard has decades of experience. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaonin” on 2015-10-06
• Raahul_Kumar said “9 years to build their first aircraft carrier.” on 2015-10-06
• Raahul_Kumar said “Is it clearer now?” on 2015-10-06
• JoshuaZ said “The prediction statement is just that China will not have an aircraft carrier built in in the next 9 years? And you estimate a 0% chance of that happening, is that correct? ” on 2015-10-06
• Josh Holland estimated 65% on 2015-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-10-07