KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural by November 1, 2027

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-14; known on 2027-10-02

• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2015-10-14
• JoshuaZ said “Context: http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/10/the-most-interesting-star-in-our-galaxy/410023/ http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.03622” on 2015-10-14
• Medea estimated 70% on 2015-10-14
• Josh Holland estimated 80% on 2015-10-15
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2027-10-02” and changed their prediction from “KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural within by November 1, 2027” on 2015-10-15
• JoshuaZ said “Adjusting grammar. ” on 2015-10-15
• EloiseRosen estimated 82% and said “Probability that the light patterns are not caused by aliens is very high. Probability that we’ll be able to determine that with very high confidence by this date is less high.” on 2015-10-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% and said “Updating based on https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/strange-star-likely-swarmed-by-comets ” on 2015-11-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 84% and said “arxiv.org/pdf/1601.03256v1.pdf” on 2016-01-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-07-09