Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales. That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars(85%) will be near zero.

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2045-10-18

• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% on 2015-10-17
• Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2015-10-17” and changed their prediction from “Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales. That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars, currently accounting for roughly 85% of Toyota glob” on 2015-10-17
• Raahul_Kumar said “I expect this to come true by 2040 actually. Toyota’s being a bit conservative. And rather than near zero I expect zero.” on 2015-10-17
• Raahul_Kumar said “Senior Managing Officer Kiyotaka Ise made the prediction.” on 2015-10-17
• Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2015-10-18” on 2015-10-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 72% on 2015-10-17
• JoshuaZ said “If you mean to predict 0 by 2045, maybe say so explicitly in the prediction, or make a separate prediction. ” on 2015-10-17
• JoshuaZ said “If you do mean this to be exactly 0 in 2045, please say so and I’ll adjust my estimate here. ” on 2015-10-17
• Raahul_Kumar said “I wanted to keep the original Toyota prediction around as is. I’ll make my own prediction elsewhere in a bit.” on 2015-10-18
• aarongertler estimated 60% and said “Defining “near zero” as “10% or less”. Much of my credence is conditional on new emissions laws passing in the EU, Japan, and other relevant areas.” on 2015-10-26
• JoshuaZ said “aaron, I think it generally helps for a prediction to use what the maker of the prediction has clarified (where they said they mean exactly zero). Maybe make another prediction for 10% or less with a note linking to this one in the comments?” on 2015-10-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 73% on 2020-06-12