Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources.

Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.

• stephenh estimated 55% on 2013-02-11
• halfwaytogallifrey estimated 30% on 2013-02-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2013-02-11
• JoshuaZ said “Likely happened due to continuing issues with the abuse scandals. Chance that this will be confirmed seems low. ” on 2013-02-11
• Jayson Virissimo said “How do you know what his reasons are? Do you mean his stated reasons?” on 2013-02-12
• Peter Hurford estimated 10% on 2013-02-12
• RandomThinker estimated 25% and said “What Joshua said.” on 2013-02-12
• simplicio estimated 15% on 2013-02-12
• ygert estimated 5% on 2013-02-13
• Tuxedage estimated 15% on 2013-02-15
• monkeypushbutton estimated 7% and said “Possibly true, but the Vatican is good enough at keeping secrets that it may never be known.” on 2013-02-18
• ChristianKl estimated 10% on 2013-02-18
• Felix estimated 20% on 2013-02-19
• Felix estimated 25% and said “http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/feb/21/pope-retired-amid-gay-bishop-blackmail-inquiryI don’t think that’s enough to make a pope resigning, but I interpret this report as evidence in favour of it.” on 2013-02-21
• roxton estimated 18% on 2013-02-22
• dusk estimated 30% on 2013-02-23
• Qiaochu estimated 20% on 2013-02-25
• hedges estimated 5% on 2013-03-22
• Nithi estimated 15% on 2014-01-23
• jkadlubo estimated 5% and said “This is a conjugation, so it must have less propability.” on 2014-02-03
• ygert   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-02-13.