By the end of the century, one or more countries bordering the Persian Gulf (or their successor national or subnational territories) will have a permanent human population of zero.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-27; known on 2116-01-01

• NathanMcKnight estimated 30% on 2015-10-27
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2015-10-27” and changed their prediction from “By the end of the century, one or more countries (or their successor national or subnational territories) will have a permanent human population of zero.” on 2015-10-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% and said “Should have end-date fixed. I presume this is prediction is primarily in response to the recent paper about increased temperatures there, but note that many other scenarios could lead to this result, such as severe use of WMDs. ” on 2015-10-27
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2015-10-28” on 2015-10-27
• NathanMcKnight said “Don’t forget climate change. Parts of the Gulf are highly susceptible to sea level rise. ” on 2015-10-27
• NathanMcKnight said “Sorry, I meant “don’t forget other aspects of climate change”.” on 2015-10-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 9% and said “Good point, updating based on that. ” on 2015-10-28
• kuudes said “End date is still wrong.” on 2015-11-01
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2015-10-27” on 2015-11-02
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2116-10-28” on 2015-11-02