The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars).

Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known in 10 days

• quanticle estimated 70% on 2015-10-28
• quanticle said “Northrop Grumman is building this plane, so there’s a very high likelihood that the plane will cost more than the $545 million they’ve quoted. I estimate the plane will cost at least 50% more than the initial quote.” on 2015-10-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 62% and said “Note that I’m assuming in my estimate that if the LRSB doesn’t get made at all this gets judged as a no. ” on 2015-10-28
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “If it only costs $846 million that will be doing better than the B-2 bomber. My related prediction is that there will be only Only 21 LRS-Bs.http://predictionbook.com/predictions/152249” on 2015-10-28
• PseudonymousUser estimated 80% and said “It’ll get made unless something absurd happens (e.g., the US goes to war with China).” on 2015-11-01
• PseudonymousUser said “I.e., I am also assuming this willl get judged as a “no” if Northrop never makes the LRSB, but I think that event is unlikely.” on 2015-11-01