Missouri will be a swing state in 2016 (within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote).

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

  • NathanMcKnight estimated 50% on 2015-10-31
  • NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2015-11-01on 2015-10-31
  • JoshuaZ said “Defined how?on 2015-11-01
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% and said “I’m defining this fairly narrowly as ‘vote margin in Missouri will be within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote’.on 2015-11-02
  • NathanMcKnight said “Updating to reflect PlacidPlatypus’ metric.on 2015-11-02
  • NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-12” and changed their prediction from “Missouri will be a swing state in 2016.” on 2015-11-02
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 20% and said “Updating my confidence to reflect narrower metric.on 2015-11-02
  • JoshuaZ estimated 14% on 2015-11-02
  • danielfilan estimated 20% on 2015-11-05
  • Bruno Parga said “Trump won Missouri by 19 points and lost the national popular vote, which I’m taking as a proxy for the median electoral vote to judge this wrong.on 2016-11-09
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.

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