Missouri will be a swing state in 2016 (within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote).

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 50% on 2015-10-31
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2015-11-01” on 2015-10-31
• JoshuaZ said “Defined how?” on 2015-11-01
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% and said “I’m defining this fairly narrowly as ‘vote margin in Missouri will be within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote’.” on 2015-11-02
• NathanMcKnight said “Updating to reflect PlacidPlatypus’ metric.” on 2015-11-02
• NathanMcKnight changed the deadline from “on 2016-11-12” and changed their prediction from “Missouri will be a swing state in 2016.” on 2015-11-02
• NathanMcKnight estimated 20% and said “Updating my confidence to reflect narrower metric.” on 2015-11-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 14% on 2015-11-02
• danielfilan estimated 20% on 2015-11-05
• Bruno Parga said “Trump won Missouri by 19 points and lost the national popular vote, which I’m taking as a proxy for the median electoral vote to judge this wrong.” on 2016-11-09
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.