Daniel Day Lewis will win the Oscar for Best Actor

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.

• Peter Hurford estimated 75% on 2013-02-22
• Peter Hurford said “http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/oscar-predictions-election-style/” on 2013-02-22
• simplicio estimated 90% and said “Thanks for posting!Just wanted to note that the meaning of Silver’s numbers is a bit unclear; they are neither odds nor probabilities but “weights;” hence, they should probably be interpreted roughly as likelihood ratios.” on 2013-02-22
• simplicio said “I mention this because Silver gives a weight of 3.17 to Daniel Day Lewis, but that does not correspond to odds of 3.17 : 1 in favour (~75%), which was the way I misread them at first.Perhaps you already knew that, it just seemed worth mentioning.” on 2013-02-22
• RandomThinker estimated 75% on 2013-02-24
• Peter Hurford   judged this prediction right on 2013-02-25.