By January 1, 2014 I will have published at least one paper that involves Artin representations where I am the sole author.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-16.

JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2013-02-24
JoshuaZ said “Judging by either having Artin representations in the title, abstract, or citing both Rohrlich and Ambrose’s papers. ” on 2013-02-24
JoshuaZ said “Not included any mention of just Artin rep in body because that’s much broader and could happen incidentally. ” on 2013-02-24
JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2013-03-21
JoshuaZ estimated 55% and said “This is starting to look like it might take longer. ” on 2013-04-10
JoshuaZ estimated 58% and said “Paper submitted, so this is now a question mainly of acceptance/turn-around time of referees and how much revisions they want. ” on 2013-07-04
JoshuaZ estimated 55% and said “Confidence reduced again based on time it is taking referees report. ” on 2013-09-02
JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “Still haven’t heard back from referees, so unless they accept and have very few changes, this is starting to look unlikely. ” on 2013-10-20
JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “Still no report back yet. At this point, barring extremely quick turn around it is unlikely this will be before January 1. ” on 2013-11-20
JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-16.
JoshuaZ said “Accepted with revisons. ” on 2014-01-16
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