Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense within one month of this prediction.

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25; known on 2013-03-25; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-26.

• Peter Hurford estimated 80% on 2013-02-25
• Peter Hurford said “This one should do better than the last one.” on 2013-02-25
• Qiaochu estimated 90% on 2013-02-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2013-02-26
• RandomThinker estimated 100% and said “It’s done. The last one you were exactly 1 day too early. http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/26/politics/hagel-battle/?hpt=hp_t1” on 2013-02-26
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction right on 2013-02-26.