English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction

Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.

  • danielfilan estimated 40% on 2015-11-05
  • JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2015-11-05
  • kuudes estimated 40% on 2015-11-08
  • JoshuaZ estimated 34% on 2015-11-08
  • kuudes said “A note, predictionbook.com deals each prediction as live rather than updating the probability of the prediction per person, JoshuaZ.on 2015-11-08
  • JoshuaZ said “Kuudes, If one uses multiple predictions at different times, it will record them both. For example, if one has 32 and 34 like I do then this will count as 2 predictions in the 30-40 range. If I adjusted the 40-50 range, would treat as one in each.on 2015-11-09
  • JoshuaZ said “Updating one’s probabilities is healthy. on 2015-11-09
  • kuudes said “Indeed. Just noted this for general knowledge, as it was discussed on elsewhere and people wondered which way it goes, and therefore it was news for me when I got it confirmed either way. Indeed it is as you say, on both counts. :-)on 2015-11-09
  • aarongertler estimated 17% and said “Three years of adding more articles per year than they have in any of the last five years? When just a bit more low-hanging fruit is plucked each year? i don’t love those odds.on 2015-11-09
  • Josh Holland estimated 30% on 2015-11-09
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 20% and said “Currently 5,007,881 articles in the English Wikipedia.Number of articles in Wikipedia is increasing by 20,000 a month. That means a figure of 5.72 million in 3 years. Far short of 6 million.http://tinyurl.com/pjnd2jkon 2015-11-12
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 17% on 2016-04-18
  • two2thehead estimated 15% on 2016-04-18
  • themusicgod1 estimated 43% on 2016-04-18
  • moyamo estimated 1% on 2018-09-29
  • vinegar estimated 1% on 2018-10-25
  • lnfinity estimated 0% on 2018-10-27
  • danielfilan   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-11-01.
  • danielfilan said “Currently at 5.74 million.on 2018-11-01

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction