Angelo Scola will be the next pope.

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-11; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-13.

• RandomThinker estimated 55% on 2013-03-11
• simplicio estimated 25% on 2013-03-11
• simplicio said “Betting markets are giving 3:1.” on 2013-03-12
• RandomThinker said “I’m calling him a favorite against the field. Just slightly though.” on 2013-03-12
• Qiaochu estimated 30% on 2013-03-13
• simplicio   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-03-13.