Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by end of the year.

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-01-01.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2013-03-12
• NathanMcKnight changed their prediction from “Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by years' end.” on 2013-03-12
• ygert estimated 30% on 2013-03-12
• Qiaochu estimated 15% on 2013-03-13
• simplicio estimated 20% on 2013-03-13
• phreeza estimated 15% on 2013-03-19
• Jenson estimated 10% on 2013-03-23
• jackyamashita estimated 14% on 2013-04-07
• Osuniev estimated 2% and said “All these estimations seem crazily high, since no such thing has been found on the past 10 years… What’s so new about 2013 ?” on 2013-04-15
• NathanMcKnight said “http://www.amnh.org/explore/news-blogs/research-posts/project-1640-conducts-first-remote-reconnaissance-of-another-solar-system” on 2013-04-15
• nigr estimated 1% on 2013-08-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2013-08-15
• phreeza   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-01.