Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012.
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
- simplicio estimated 35% on 2013-03-13
- Peter Hurford estimated 60% on 2013-03-14
- alecbrooks estimated 60% and said “The Met Office predicted in December 2012 that 2013 would be warmer: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/2013-global-forecast.” on 2013-03-14
- simplicio said “According to http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtthe anomaly for 2013 was 0.56°C (this is different because the MET office uses a different baseline).” on 2013-03-14
- simplicio said “I used the above dataset to find the mean yearly temp anomaly & its variance since 1985, (avg 0.428°C, stdev 0.288°C). A normal distribution on that gives a probability of exceeding 2012’s anomaly of ~35%.” on 2013-03-14
- simplicio said “So my estimate is low because 2012 was fairly hot – not because I expect 2013 to be cold.Obviously the met office carries more weight than some guy with Excel, but I don’t see what my mistake is… my approach still seems reasonable.” on 2013-03-14
- alecbrooks said “Your approach is reasonable, if simple, but it seems to assume that there’s no upward trend. Is that intentional?” on 2013-03-14
- simplicio said “Right, I figured that the period from 1985 to 2012 was short enough and recent enough that the warming trend would be negligible over that timescale. But on second thought, it probably isn’t, since if I do 2000-2012 I get a prob of 50%.” on 2013-03-14
- simplicio said “Underestimated the rapidity of the warming trend. Tx.” on 2013-03-14
- RandomThinker estimated 55% on 2013-03-15
- NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2013-03-19
- hedges estimated 60% on 2013-03-22
- Jenson estimated 60% on 2013-03-23
- ChristianKl estimated 50% on 2013-03-26
- Tuxedage estimated 60% on 2013-03-27
- ctp estimated 45% on 2013-04-24
- JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2013-04-24
- Michael Dickens estimated 60% on 2013-06-16
- Ken estimated 80% on 2013-06-17
- fela estimated 58% on 2014-01-04
- fela estimated 52% on 2014-01-04
- simplicio judged this prediction right on 2014-01-15.