My PredictionBook calibration will be obviously better by my 400th prediction than it is now at 208 predictions.

Created by nick on 2013-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by nick on 2015-03-15.

• nick estimated 80% on 2013-03-14
• nick said “50%: 36% (n=11) – 60%: 41% (n=34) – 70%: 59% (n=49) – 80%: 77% (n=56) – 90%: 88% (n=58) – 100%: 0% (n=0)” on 2013-03-14
• nick said “Checked this now at 487 predictions:50%: 48% (n=33) – 60%: 50% (n=90) – 70%: 68% (n=112) – 80%: 71% (n=114) – 90%: 83% (n=138) – 100: 0% (n=0)Crudely adding the errors gives 49% off before, 30% off now. Obvious enough!” on 2015-03-15
• nick   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-15.