No US sitting US Republican Senator who is up for reelection in 2014 will come out publicly in favor of gay marriage before April 1, 2014.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2013-04-03
• RandomThinker estimated 45% on 2013-04-03
• Sarokrae estimated 50% on 2013-04-04
• RandomThinker said “Any of these people up for reelection? http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2013/06/19/lisa_murkowski_gay_marriage_alaska_republican_third_gop_senator_to_back.html” on 2013-06-19
• RandomThinker said “Nope. Murkowski – 2016, Portman – 2016, Kirk – 2016. ” on 2013-06-19
• JoshuaZ said “RandomThinker, I made this prediction right after what happened with Portman. It as specifically in that context. The logic is that they are doing so because they can see attitudes changing so they know by their next primary it will be ok. ” on 2013-06-20
• JoshuaZ said “It makes sense right now a lot more for a sitting Republican senator to do this if they have a few years. They get the credit now for looking reasonable (and like a relatively earlier adopter), but without as much risk of primary blowback. ” on 2013-06-20
• Nithi estimated 90% on 2014-01-23
• Grognor estimated 93% on 2014-01-31
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2014-04-01.