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WIMPs will be discovered by beginning of 2020.

Created by splorridge on 2015-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.

  • splorridge estimated 60% on 2015-12-08
  • JoshuaZ said “What do you mean by discovered? Arguably we’ve discovered them already given the strong evidence that most dark matter are WIMPs. Can you be more specific? ” on 2015-12-08
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 30% and said “He means one of the dark matter searches will find which dark matter candidate exists. Whether it be WIMP, Macho, Axon or some other candidate. I personally prefer alternative candidates.” on 2015-12-08
  • Raahul_Kumar said “http://arxiv.org/pdf/1509.00869.pdf” on 2015-12-08
  • JoshuaZ said “Can splorridge clarify that he means that? Also note that Axons are a subset of WIMPS. ” on 2015-12-09
  • splorridge said “JoshuaZ, it’s possible I’m not fully up to date. What is the “strong evidence that most dark matter are WIMPs” to which you refer?” on 2015-12-09
  • splorridge said “I would argue that we’ve not discovered dark matter, strictly speaking. As far as I’m aware the only evidence for it is through gravitational effects. ” on 2015-12-09
  • splorridge said “By “discovered” I mean a widely accepted positive result in one of the direct or indirect detection experiments that are being done, or will be done in the next 4 years.” on 2015-12-09
  • JoshuaZ said “splorridge, it might be better to say that the evidence is pretty strong that it isn’t MACHOs. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_compact_halo_object#Detection ” on 2015-12-09
  • JoshuaZ said “Note also Note also that the Bullet Cluster and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACS_J0025.4-1222 are both easier to explain with WIMPs than MACHOs. ” on 2015-12-09
  • splorridge said “So would I be right in guessing you’d put quite a high probability that detection experiments will discover WIMPs in the next few years?” on 2015-12-10
  • JoshuaZ said “I’m not sure. It depends a lot on what one means by a detection experiment. The gravitational evidence for WIMPs seems very strong, but many specific particles have been ruled out. Do you mean non-gravity detection? ” on 2015-12-10
  • splorridge said “Conventionally, gravitational evidence for dark matter is not considered “detection”.See sections 4, 5 and 6 of http://arxiv.org/pdf/1509.00869v1.pdf for the sort of experiments I’m talking about.” on 2015-12-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 34% on 2015-12-14
  • Raahul_Kumar said “splorridge, would you mind creating predictions for the other Dark Matter candidates? This isn’t a one horse race.” on 2015-12-30
  • splorridge said “Raahul_Kumar, be my guest. You probably know more than me about the alternatives. ” on 2016-01-09
  • splorridge estimated 40% on 2016-09-01
  • themusicgod1 estimated 45% on 2016-09-01
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-20.