The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31

Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30.

• solipsist estimated 50% on 2015-12-09
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “I am Satoshi Nakamoto. You’ll find Waldo and Carmen Sandiego before you find the real Satoshi.” on 2015-12-09
• Raahul_Kumar said “Other people who were the “Real” Satoshi.Nick Szabohttp://www.ibtimes.co.uk/bitcoin-inventor-satoshi-nakamoto-nominated-nobel-prize-economics-1527831” on 2015-12-09
• Raahul_Kumar said “The evidence the NYT offers is ultra thin. There are hundreds of people who own large bitcoin stashes, and Sakomoto would have offloaded his back when Bitcoin hits its peak valuation.http://www.bitcoinrichlist.com/top100” on 2015-12-09
• danielfilan estimated 50% on 2015-12-09
• danielfilan estimated 10% on 2015-12-10
• Raahul_Kumar said “Daniel, what made you revise the probability downward so much?http://canmua.net/world/it-still-isnt-clear-if-journalists-found-the-real-200164.html” on 2015-12-10
• Medea estimated 25% on 2015-12-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-12-10
• Antisuji estimated 10% on 2015-12-11
• tstelzig estimated 10% on 2015-12-14
• VincentYu estimated 0% on 2015-12-16
• Afforess estimated 7% on 2015-12-17
• Raahul_Kumar said “PGP keys point to a hoax.https://motherboard.vice.com/read/satoshis-pgp-keys-are-probably-backdated-and-point-to-a-hoax” on 2015-12-22
• PseudonymousUser estimated 13% on 2015-12-31
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2015-12-31
• danielfilan estimated 5% on 2015-12-31
• Raahul_Kumar said “I am not Craig Wright. We are all Satoshi.https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2015-December/011936.html” on 2016-01-30
• Raahul_Kumar said “Text Analysis Confirms Craig Wright Is Not Satoshi Nakamotohttps://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/text-analysis-confirms-craig-wright-not-satoshi-nakamoto/” on 2016-01-30
• Raahul_Kumar said “The evidence is clear: pgp keys, real Satoshi denied Craig Wright on Bitcoin mailing list, and text analysis shows Wright can’t be Satoshi.” on 2016-01-30
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-30.
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-01-30.
• PseudonymousUser said “Raahul, that is not for you to decide. Let’s wait until the deadline.” on 2016-01-30
• Raahul_Kumar said “Nathaniel Popper of New York Times:1.Got a very curious email attempting to dox Craig Wright — Wired’s Satoshi — back in Oct. Didn’t find it convincing at the time.https://twitter.com/nathanielpopper/status/674365203287572480” on 2016-01-30
• Raahul_Kumar said “Can someone do a tiebreak? It is very clear that New York Times doesn’t believe in Craig Wright, and the evidence is clear that this is another hoax.” on 2016-01-30
• PseudonymousUser said “Please wait for the deadline since by the wording of the prediction it cannot be judged before then” on 2016-01-30
• solipsist   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-12-31.