By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects exists, was collected independently of the 1979 GAO data set, and independently found the same frequencies.

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-04-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.

• Laurent Bossavit estimated 1% on 2013-04-13
• Laurent Bossavit changed their prediction from “By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects exists, was collected independently of the 1979 GAO data set, and independently found the same frequencies. Cf. http://le” on 2013-04-13
• Laurent Bossavit said “For background,see http://lesswrong.com/lw/h64/how_to_evaluate_data/8qdl” on 2013-04-13
• Laurent Bossavit   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-08-22.