By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the supposed results of the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects were in fact the result of error, distorsion or fraud rather than conclusions from an actual survey

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-04-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.

• Laurent Bossavit estimated 60% on 2013-04-13
• Laurent Bossavit said “For background,see http://lesswrong.com/lw/h64/how_to_evaluate_data/8qdl” on 2013-04-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2013-04-13
• Laurent Bossavit said “It might not take that long – I’ve managed to establish email contact with the author. (Of course he might give me evidence favoring the other prediction, the one I’m 1% on.)” on 2013-04-14
• Laurent Bossavit   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-08-22.