Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto.
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
- James Babcock estimated 99% on 2015-12-09
- JoshuaZ estimated 82% on 2015-12-10
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “His personality is that of a blowhard, the real Satoshi aka myself is a humble programmer with excellent maths skills as evidenced by Bitcoin’s blockchain.” on 2015-12-10
- Raahul_Kumar said “http://canmua.net/world/it-still-isnt-clear-if-journalists-found-the-real-200164.html” on 2015-12-10
- Medea estimated 85% on 2015-12-10
- themusicgod1 estimated 90% on 2015-12-11
- mortehu estimated 90% on 2015-12-11
- tstelzig estimated 80% on 2015-12-14
- EloiseRosen estimated 85% on 2015-12-14
- ChristianKl estimated 95% on 2015-12-16
- PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2015-12-26
- PseudonymousUser estimated 95% on 2016-01-07
- EloiseRosen estimated 95% on 2016-01-08
- JoshuaZ estimated 91% on 2016-01-08
- Jach estimated 91% on 2016-01-10
- themusicgod1 estimated 57% and said “He has done so according to 2 serious people in the bitcoin world, but not in public where it can be verified.” on 2016-05-02
- themusicgod1 estimated 49% and said “http://financialcryptography.com/mt/archives/001593.html some evidence would be nice but holy shit.” on 2016-05-02
- themusicgod1 estimated 50% and said “There is an unbelievable amount of chicanery, smoke and mirrors going on wrt Wright right now. https://dankaminsky.com/2016/05/02/validating-satoshi-or-not/” on 2016-05-02
- two2thehead estimated 60% on 2016-12-03
- themusicgod1 judged this prediction right on 2016-12-09.