At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 88% on 2015-12-17
• splorridge estimated 95% on 2015-12-17
• Medea estimated 80% on 2015-12-18
• sflicht estimated 90% on 2015-12-19
• Raahul_Kumar said “Split it up by nation instead of saying generically. Only the USA is certain to fail.” on 2015-12-19
• PipFoweraker estimated 70% on 2015-12-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 88% on 2016-04-13
• NickN estimated 98% on 2020-08-16
• JoshuaZ said “I’m actually having trouble finding good summaries of this year’s data. And COVID inadvertently drastically reduced CO2 uses in many places. We may need to wait to judge this one. ” on 2021-01-01