There will be at least 3 candidates for U.S. President polling at 10%+ on the eve of the 2016 elections.

Created by sflicht on 2015-12-19; known on 2016-11-07; judged wrong by sflicht on 2016-11-08.

• sflicht estimated 10% on 2015-12-19
• themusicgod1 estimated 59% on 2016-04-14
• sflicht estimated 15% on 2016-04-24
• Bruno Parga estimated 10% on 2016-07-31
• leo_grint estimated 60% on 2016-08-09
• elephantower estimated 40% and said “considering Johnson is currently at 8.7, the other estimates seem oddly low” on 2016-08-10
• NathanMcKnight estimated 5% on 2016-11-05
• themusicgod1 said “appears no, highest is about 7% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/” on 2016-11-07
• sflicht   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-08.