Donald Trump to be the next US President.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.

• JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2015-12-30
• JoshuaZ said “Surprised we don’t have this prediction up already. Note also remind https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/3yn9mi/how_donald_trump_destroyed_the_republican_party/cyfff6j of their prediction later. ” on 2015-12-30
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “An average of recent Clinton-Trump match-up polls, RealClearPolitics has Clinton leading Trump by 5.5 points. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/264353-trump-v-clinton-dead-heat-says-new-poll” on 2015-12-30
• Raahul_Kumar said “While polls may change between now and the election, that’s what it says today.” on 2015-12-30
• timujin estimated 15% on 2015-12-30
• PipFoweraker estimated 5% and said “There is another 12 months at this point where any significant security event on American soil would strengthen a belligerent Republican response…” on 2015-12-30
• danielfilan estimated 15% on 2015-12-30
• mortehu estimated 10% on 2015-12-30
• PseudonymousUser estimated 12% on 2015-12-31
• Andrew MacFie estimated 25% on 2015-12-31
• hedges estimated 20% on 2015-12-31
• EloiseRosen estimated 10% on 2015-12-31
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 8% on 2016-01-01
• splorridge estimated 20% on 2016-01-02
• C11ris estimated 15% on 2016-01-02
• justthefacts estimated 0% on 2016-01-02
• ruperthardy estimated 6% and said “Beaten in the primaries” on 2016-01-02
• Medea estimated 10% on 2016-01-02
• Medea estimated 10% on 2016-01-02
• b5mith estimated 7% on 2016-01-02
• lucas49   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-03.
• PipFoweraker   judged this prediction unknown on 2016-01-03.
• PseudonymousUser estimated 50% on 2016-01-04
• wgeoc estimated 80% and said “Everyone else is really boring, in the end people are going to vote for him because he actually acts like a real person.” on 2016-01-04
• ioannes estimated 5% on 2016-01-04
• ivendrov estimated 20% on 2016-01-07
• nshepperd estimated 5% and said “20% nomination × 37% republican party candidate election. A bit less than this based on my assumption that trump is less attractive to the center…” on 2016-01-07
• phreeza estimated 20% on 2016-01-07
• pkfalu92 estimated 5% on 2016-01-07
• themusicgod1 estimated 25% on 2016-01-10
• ChristianKl estimated 25% on 2016-01-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 16% on 2016-01-15
• Qiaochu estimated 70% on 2016-01-22
• JoshuaZ said “Qiaochu, presumably this means you need to update http://predictionbook.com/predictions/15947 ?” on 2016-01-22
• PseudonymousUser said ““his odds of winning the Presidency are 0.0 percent” http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/settle-down-its-mathematically-impossible-for-donald-trump-to-win-the-presidency/23195/” on 2016-02-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2016-03-02
• waveman estimated 35% on 2016-03-04
• waveman estimated 35% on 2016-03-04
• equivrel estimated 20% on 2016-03-04
• themusicgod1 estimated 27% on 2016-03-22
• cyberneticloop estimated 29% on 2016-03-23
• mrmrpotatohead estimated 9% on 2016-03-23
• Andrew MacFie estimated 30% on 2016-03-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2016-03-23
• cyberneticloop estimated 20% on 2016-03-24
• waveman estimated 25% and said “He seems to be running into trouble on a number of frtonts” on 2016-04-02
• jesselevine estimated 0% on 2016-04-03
• NathanMcKnight estimated 4% on 2016-04-04
• waveman estimated 40% on 2016-04-21
• NathanMcKnight estimated 12% on 2016-04-29
• pkfalu92 estimated 59% on 2016-05-04
• two2thehead estimated 10% and said “Being disliked by the majority of the other party is one thing. Being disliked by a majority of your own party is quite another. ” on 2016-05-04
• two2thehead said “Posting this update to remind myself to learn more about Trump’s fav rating. Ivan said I am underestimating it.” on 2016-05-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on 2016-05-04
• EloiseRosen estimated 25% on 2016-05-04
• PseudonymousUser said “for the record both predictit and predictious are at 40% on this today ” on 2016-05-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 31% on 2016-05-04
• Andrew MacFie estimated 49% on 2016-05-04
• waveman estimated 45% on 2016-05-04
• bitbatbot estimated 40% on 2016-05-04
• bitbatbot estimated 35% on 2016-05-05
• ejlflop estimated 30% on 2016-05-21
• InquilineKea estimated 25% on 2016-05-21
• Reactionaryhistorian estimated 50% on 2016-05-24
• splorridge estimated 48% on 2016-06-09
• ejlflop estimated 36% on 2016-06-24
• hedges estimated 44% on 2016-06-24
• ejlflop estimated 55% on 2016-06-25
• PseudonymousUser estimated 20% on 2016-07-13
• ejlflop estimated 45% on 2016-07-25
• splorridge estimated 54% on 2016-07-26
• two2thehead estimated 20% and said “Using Nate Silver’s prediction. Rounded to the tens. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931” on 2016-07-26
• pkfalu92 estimated 32% on 2016-07-26
• Jenson said “The FiveThirtyEight/Nate Silver 21% figure is from the beginning of the month. It’s currently much higher.” on 2016-07-27
• two2thehead said “Correct. I should have been clearer. :-) The reason for my choosing the 20 percent probability was my decision both equalize with another ‘Next president will be’ prediction and to avoid making too many prediction changes.” on 2016-07-27
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2016-08-03
• PseudonymousUser said “campaign seems to be imploding for real this time” on 2016-08-03
• probablyinsane estimated 70% and said “I don’t want it to happen- and I’m probably insane for guessing based on a gut feeling, but I’ll record it anyway just to check if gut feelings mean anything. ” on 2016-09-26
• Andrew MacFie estimated 40% on 2016-10-10
• waveman estimated 20% and said “Likely to be closer than people think but Clinton has ground game.” on 2016-10-31
• Andrew MacFie estimated 25% on 2016-11-07
• two2thehead estimated 10% on 2016-11-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 6% on 2016-11-08
• Andrew MacFie estimated 90% on 2016-11-09
• splorridge   judged this prediction right on 2016-11-09.