No 3rd party verification for North Korea's claim to have tested a thermonuclear weapon.

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.

• Raahul_Kumar estimated 92% on 2016-01-06
• Raahul_Kumar said “http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/06/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-test.html” on 2016-01-06
• Raahul_Kumar said “They may have tested a fission device, but fusion is the key point.” on 2016-01-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 46% on 2016-01-06
• PipFoweraker estimated 85% on 2016-01-06
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 60% on 2016-01-06
• PlacidPlatypus said “Not a big deal but it probably would have been clearer to word it as the inverse.” on 2016-01-06
• phreeza estimated 90% and said “Assuming this is referring to the test reported in January 2016” on 2016-01-07
• Raahul_Kumar said ““Initial analysis is not consistent with N Korean claims of a hydrogen bomb explosion,” White House Press Secretary, Josh Earnesthttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/50475577.cms” on 2016-01-07
• Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-16” and changed their prediction from “North Korea will not be verified by a third party to have tested a thermonuclear weapon.” on 2016-01-07
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 95% and said “While the scientific community hasn’t weighed in yet, not looking good.” on 2016-01-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2016-01-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 51% on 2016-01-10
• btrettel said “What is meant by “third party verification”? It appears that multiple reputable institutions have recognized that NK has conducted nuclear tests, e.g.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2016_North_Korean_nuclear_test#Yield_and_estimates” on 2016-09-10
• themusicgod1 said “Nuclear tests is different than, say, hydrogen bomb testing.” on 2016-09-11
• RainbowSpacedancer estimated 85% on 2016-12-02
• themusicgod1 said “If there was any such verification…it never got added to wikipedia. These negative claims are hard but available evidence doesn’t support claim.” on 2017-05-08
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction right on 2017-05-08.