The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship.

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01

• PipFoweraker estimated 30% on 2016-01-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 27% on 2016-01-10
• two2thehead estimated 30% and said “NOW we are talking. The above probabilities (30 vs 27 percent) have it right imo. Somewhere between 20 and 30 percent, leaning towards between 25 and 30 percent.” on 2016-06-15
• two2thehead said “Does this take in to account regionalism/break-away parts of the PRC? I’m inclined to say yes. Not necessarily Taiwan but other regions that may break away.” on 2016-06-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 61% on 2016-06-15
• PseudonymousUser estimated 70% on 2019-03-08